Climate-resilience and adaptation studies for Tanzania-Burundi railway

Project summary

The Tanzania–Burundi Central Rail Corridor Climate Resilience Project is a bold step toward safeguarding one of East and Central Africa’s most vital trade arteries. Targeting climate-vulnerable sections, the project pioneers a blend of cutting-edge engineering and nature-based solutions to tackle flooding, landslides and extreme heat.

The background

The Central Rail Corridor, linking Tanzania to Burundi, is a lifeline for trade across East and Central Africa, facilitating regional integration and economic growth. Serving Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the corridor supports the movement of essential goods such as minerals and cereals. Over 40% of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s trade, 80% of Burundi’s exports and 95% of Tanzania’s international trade passes through Dar es Salaam’s port, making this infrastructure vital for regional trade.

The current metre gauge rail system faces severe climate-related vulnerabilities, including flooding, landslides, erosion and sediment aggradation, which disrupt operations and increase transport costs. The Global Center on Adaptation (GCA) partnered with Pegasys from January 2024 to March 2025 to address these challenges by embedding climate-resilience measures into rail infrastructure upgrades through a feasibility study. This effort focused on the Kilosa–Igandu section in Tanzania and the new rail link between Uvinza, Tanzania, and Gitega, Burundi.

The challenges

Tanzania’s rail network is increasingly undermined by extreme weather events and ageing infrastructure. In the Morogoro region, frequent flooding leads to rail closures, diverting goods to congested road systems and raising costs.

Although Tanzania Intermodal Railway Development Project (TIRP) Phase 1 improved parts of the Dar es Salaam–Isaka railway corridor through track renewal and hydraulic structure refurbishment, key sections, such as the Kilosa to Igandu stretch, were not addressed. Phase 2 of the project aims to renovate these remaining sections, which are still vulnerable to climate risks such as flooding, landslides and heat-related track damage.

Landslides frequently affect a 27 km stretch of the metre gauge railway corridor, while rising temperatures (up to 5.8°C above the historic baseline) increase rail faults caused by thermal expansion. Outdated infrastructure has reduced the corridor’s freight capacity to just 8% of its original design. It is currently transporting 416,000 tonnes per year compared to nearly 200 million tonnes transported by road.

The solutions

A comprehensive strategy was required to address the pressing climate risks and strengthen the railway system’s resilience. A climate risk and vulnerability assessment was conducted to identify hazards and vulnerabilities under both current and future climate scenarios. This assessment covered over 400 km of rail, prioritising critical sections such as Kilosa–Igandu, which is one of the most vulnerable parts of the Central Rail Corridor in Tanzania.

In response to the identified risks, Pegasys proposed a suite of adaptive measures that blended conventional engineering with nature-based solutions. These included flood management, landslide prevention and adaptation to rising temperatures. For instance, sustainable flood management combined physical infrastructure with ecological interventions to mitigate erosion and control water flow. Additionally, tailored solutions for landslides and thermal expansion were introduced to reduce operational disruptions and safeguard the railway’s functionality.

Economic viability was ensured through detailed modelling and appraisal. The proposed measures were evaluated for cost-effectiveness across a range of climate scenarios, from baseline conditions to extreme futures. Sensitivity analyses and ‘what-if?’ scenarios were used to calculate the net present value of interventions, demonstrating their long-term financial benefits. By quantifying reductions in operational disruptions, increased freight capacity and decreased greenhouse gas emissions, the analysis emphasised the value of investing in climate resilience.

Conservation farming practices were integrated into the plan to address erosion and sedimentation challenges while improving agricultural productivity. These measures aim to reduce the risk of culvert blockages, preserve bridge capacity and minimise flood-related damage to rail infrastructure.

The impact

The project is expected to transform the Central Rail Corridor into a climate-resilient trade artery for East and Central Africa. Climate disruptions, including flooding, landslides and heat damage, will be significantly reduced, supporting uninterrupted trade and improved operational reliability. By 2060, these measures are projected to prevent up to $40 million in annual economic losses.

The plan will also shift freight from road to rail, reducing transport costs by as much as 40%, cutting emissions and easing pressure on overburdened road systems. Increased rail reliability is expected to attract investment and spur economic growth across the region. The long-term value of rail assets is projected to rise by $166 million over a 50-year period. Local communities will benefit directly from conservation farming practices, with expected increases in crop productivity of up to 100% and reduced risk of displacement from flooding. These outcomes will improve livelihoods while helping to protect critical transport infrastructure.

In the long term, structured investment plans and robust economic analyses will ensure the sustainability of resilience measures. Projections indicate a 25% reduction in rail disruption days annually, translating to approximately $10 million in economic savings each year. The proposed adaptation measures include three flood management solutions, two landslide prevention measures and one temperature adaptation strategy, blending both grey and nature-based solutions to create a sustainable and resilient infrastructure framework. This effort will support millions of people, strengthen trade and development and secure a sustainable future for the region.