Why certainty matters in the UK energy sector

This opinion piece first appeared in Energy Voice on 10 July 2026.

Certainty is perhaps the most important commodity in the UK energy sector at the moment and, without a doubt, the most used word of this year’s energy conference season. RSK Group’s Kit Hawkins says that at a time when, more than ever, the focus is on cost reduction and security of supply, stable and predictable policy, regulation and market frameworks are not just ‘nice to have’ but critical to the future direction of our power system.

Long-term investment needs stable energy policy

Our energy system was designed for a bygone era, and shaping it properly for the future is capital intensive. Power stations (whether conventional, nuclear or renewables), storage assets and networks are designed to operate for decades, requiring significant investment before a single unit of power is produced. Investors, developers and lenders need confidence that the rules of the game will remain broadly stable over those timescales. When certainty erodes, capital becomes more expensive, projects slow down or fail to reach final investment decisions and costs flow through to consumers.

Renewables and low-carbon infrastructure depend on certainty

Policy certainty is particularly critical for renewables and low-carbon infrastructure. Offshore wind, solar, hydrogen, carbon capture and long-duration storage rely on clearly defined political support, financial support mechanisms, licensing regimes and an effective planning process. The UK’s success in scaling offshore wind since 2005 demonstrates that progress accelerated when developers were able to rely on a predictable revenue and policy framework.

Energy security relies on long-term confidence

Certainty also underpins energy security. The energy transition is no longer just about the mitigation of climate change but is a strategic one based on bill reduction and strengthening security of supply. Domestic low-carbon generation and flexible storage should help reduce exposure to volatile global markets and geopolitical shocks over the coming decades, but changing our energy system cannot be delivered solely through short-term interventions. Doing this properly to meet the demands of future generations requires sustained investment in generation, networks and flexibility, all of which depend on long-term confidence in the direction of travel and public and government support.

Policy stability can help lower consumer costs

From a consumer perspective, certainty matters because it lowers costs. The recent Watt Communities Want report suggests that almost two-thirds of the UK public (63%) believe clean energy makes the UK more energy secure, an increase from 36% in 2020; however, while public support for renewable energy is increasing, at a political level it is becoming more polarised. This in turn is reducing long-term certainty (the next general election is, at most, three-and-a-half years away) and introducing additional volatility to an already complex system. Stability and certainty reduce perceived risk, which in turn reduce the returns demanded by investors.

Investors need confidence beyond electoral cycles

Infrastructure investors do not think in electoral cycles but rather in decades, so clear long-term policy direction allows investors to align capital allocation strategies. Projects are considered on the expected returns, as well as the risks; policy stability, clear regulation and predictable market rules reduce the likelihood of surprises. Lower perceived risk expands the pool of investors willing to participate, including long-term institutional capital such as pension funds.

UK clean energy investment depends on global competitiveness

When uncertainty is high, investors either demand higher returns to compensate for risk or decline to invest altogether, and this once-available capital then sits on the sidelines or flows to less volatile markets. Certainty strengthens the UK’s global standing – capital is mobile, and countries compete for investment in clean energy supply chains, manufacturing and skills. A reputation for a stable and credible energy policy has long been a UK asset, and maintaining this is essential if the UK is to remain a destination of choice for energy investment in an increasingly competitive global market.

Certainty is the enabler of energy transition reform

Certainty isn’t just this season’s buzzword but rather the quiet enabler of reformation across the UK’s energy sector. Without it, ambition falters and prices continue to impact consumers; with it, the transition becomes faster, cheaper and more secure for everyone.

Kit Hawkins is renewables director at RSK Group and began his career in the wind sector almost 20 years ago. He has held a number of senior roles within the project development and consenting sector and has served on both national and international offshore wind steering and advisory groups.